As we head into the 2009-2010 NCAA football season, there are locker rooms on campuses across the country filled with optimism and the dream of a National Championship. If you ask a player from Michigan, UCLA, Tennessee or most other teams "what makes this season different?" They will most likely tell you about their great off season and how their freshman have grown up and are showing lots of promise. All of these are great ideas and I am sure if I was putting on my shoulder pads in Knoxville, I would also feel we were truly going to make the difference. But as I sit here breaking down the upcoming season, I can't help but wonder when Ned Briarson is going to come walking by. For those of you that don't remember, Ned Briarson was one of the characters in the Bill Murray movie, "Groundhog Day". I am all for the dream of championships that only the start of the new season can bring. However, from where I am sitting it is clear that this year is different. The fact that key players on most of the best teams from last year decided to stay in school makes this a year that when trying to find the winners of the BCS Bowls, the best tool you can reference might just be last season's results.
Here are a few key factors that should help the "old guard" repeat as the main players in this seasons BCS games and a betting man would tell you that your 2009-2010 national champion will be one of these 5 teams.
USC- The Trojans are 4 ½ to 1 to win it all and that is probably a good price from the class of the west. Of course, losing quarterback Mark Sanchez is a problem, but USC is still the best of not only the PAC 10 but the entire western third of the country. This is important because until we get a playoff system in college football selecting the teams that play for the title will in part be a popularity contest. With 1/3 of the country looking at the same team being the best in their backyard, USC will have the edge if it comes down to teams with the same record when trying to decide who gets to play for it all. USC will replace/reload at the QB spot and be a major player in January.
Florida- For most, the gators is the obvious pick to play for it all but before we give them the title, let's look at a couple of key problems for the defending champs. First, it is very rare that the team that starts the season ranked #1 ends the season on top. The gators are going to get everybody's best shot due to the fact they are #1 and in the past, the gators have not been afraid of playing down to their competition sometime in late September or early October. Lots of great teams do this but most gator fans will agree, they like Tebow a lot more with the lead then coming from behind. Second, the SEC is still one of the top 2 conferences in the country and with the emergence of teams like Ole Miss and the great talent throughout the conference; don't be surprised if the gators again slip up when nobody is looking. Remember, ground hog day means repeat the good and the bad and at less than 2-1 to repeat, I will try and find a little better odds on a team that has an easier road to the BCS championship.
Texas/Oklahoma- These teams are combined because only one of these teams will be in the conversation in December. These teams have a lot in common as we head into the season. First, they both are feeding their players something that makes them hate money! Oklahoma returns underclassmen, which if they had come out after last season, were guaranteed to be millionaires. Gerald McCoy and Sam Bradford will again be a big part of the Sooners success but having to rebuild the offensive might just be the difference in a couple of games. Texas returns, everybody's favorite country boy, Colt McCoy who also would have had a great chance of making big bucks at the next level. The fact that these players decided to stay in school to play football and eat ramen noodles for another season gets them in the conversation of ending #1 but after last year's beat down of Oklahoma by Florida, the public/polls won't be near as forgiving of a Big 12 team if they are not undefeated. Everyone knows the winner of the Red River battle in October will have the inside track but the Big 12 is also going to be a strong conference top to bottom and a late season slip by the winner of that game isn't out of the question. Texas at 6-1 provides the best odds of these 2 teams but I would save my money for a team with an easier path.
So, who wins it all?
My pick is-
The Ohio State Buckeyes- They are 5 or 6 in most preseason polls due to the loss of their 3 All-Americans. Yes, these are key losses but with 7 returning on defense and one of the top 3 players in the country, Terrell Pryor at QB, the Buckeyes will be hitting on all cylinders by the time they get into the Big 10 season. I expect Penn State to go back to the team we were used to seeing before last season's great run and Michigan is still a few seasons away. At 8-1 we are getting great odds and a much easier schedule than the other contenders.
Yes, I believe the same teams will be in the conversation for the eventual champ but the title will return thru the Big 10 and at 8-1 odds to win it all, a little "winner winner chicken dinner!!!" for my clients that follow my winning selections.
Las Vegas odds to win the 2009-2010 BCS Title
Florida 2 to 1
USC 4 ½ to 1
Oklahoma 4 ½ to 1
Texas 6 to 1
Ohio State 8 to 1
Alabama 15 to 1
LSU 20 to 1
Florida State 20 to 1
Miami, Fl 35 to 1
S. Florida 40 to 1
Auburn 80 to 1
Michigan 80 to 1
Of course, I am in the business of finding winners against the spread and winning straight up is secondary to covering the spread for my clients. However, the teams at the top will be the first place you might want to look when finding the early season blow outs. Have a great season and give me a call if you are going to Vegas or the Bahamas and I can help you come home a winner!!
THE FAT JACK
